Growth Model

Overview

Since 2015, California has invested significant time and effort in developing a student growth model that is valid, reliable, and fair. California conducted a thorough and thoughtful process of selecting the model that best meets California's needs. On May 12, 2021, the State Board of Education (SBE) approved a student-level growth model using grades four through eight growth scores. The development and adoption of this growth model was accomplished due to the valuable input from a broad range of stakeholders, and the expertise of the California Department of Education's (CDE's) assessment vendor, Educational Testing Service (ETS), and the Technical Design Group (TDG).

The California Department of Education will publicly release growth data in December 2024.

California's Student-Level Growth Model

A growth model is a way of measuring the growth of students’ assessment scores year to year based on their statewide assessment scores in English language arts (ELA) and mathematics. Growth is different from achievement. Achievement—such as a single assessment score—shows us how much students know at the time of the assessment. Growth shows us how much students' scores grew from one grade level to the next. In an accountability system, aggregate student growth can provide a picture of average growth for students within a school, local educational agency, or student group.

Calculating Growth Scores

California’s student-level growth model methodology uses the statewide California Assessment of Student Performance and Progress results from students in grades four through eight in both English language arts (ELA) and mathematics.

The first step in calculating individual student growth scores for a subject area (ELA or Mathematics) is to determine the student’s expected test score. The expected test score is determined by looking at students who had similar test scores in the previous grade and then evaluating their typical test scores in the current year. Once an expected test score is determined for each student, the difference between the student's expected test score and their actual test score is compared to arrive at their individual growth scores.

These individual scores are averaged for students at the district, school, and student group levels, using either a simple average—when there are large numbers of students, or a weighted average— when there are small numbers of students.

For a complete and in-depth technical review of the growth model methodology, please view the Additional Resources made available at the end of this web page.

Upcoming Data Releases

• Fall 2024:
  • Release of aggregate LEA, school, and student group growth score data for English Language Arts (ELA) and mathematics (i.e., 2022, 2023, and 2024 results).
  • Publication of growth score data on the Dashboard.

Accountability Updates

• 2025:
  • CDE’s annual Accountability Workplan will be presented to the SBE in January 2025. The workplan will include options for establishing and adopting performance standards for Student Growth for use in the accountability system. The SBE will be asked to adopt these standards at their meeting in July 2025.
• 2024:
  • Release of growth scores following the publication of of the California School Dashboard (required publication no later than December 1, 2024)
• 2023:
  • CDE worked with educational partners to develop graphical displays for growth data on the Dashboard and additional materials to support understanding of the growth model.

Prior Growth Score Data Release

• 2021:
  • Released aggregate LEA, school, and student group growth score data via downloadable data files for informational purposes only. This data is not intended to be used for accountability and/or evaluation purposes.
  • Released Student Growth Toolkit to support understanding of California’s Student Growth data.

Student Growth Toolkit

Videos

• What is California’s Student Growth Model? (Video; 3:24)
  This video provides an overview of California's Student Growth Model. It describes the development, usefulness and timeline of future data releases.
• Modelo de Crecimiento del Alumno en California (Video; 4:47)
  Este video proporciona una visión general del Modelo de Crecimiento del Alumno en California. Describe el desarrollo, la utilidad y el cronograma de futuras publicaciones de datos.

Flyers

Getting to know the California School Dashboard (Translated)

• Growth Model Fact Sheet (English)(PDF)
• Modelo de Crecimiento Ficha Técnica (Spanish)(PDF)
• ورقة حقائق نموذج النمو (Arabic)(PDF)
• Информационная броюра о модели прогресса (Russian)(PDF)
• 成长模型情况说明 (Simplified Chinese)(PDF)
• 成長模式說明書 (Traditional Chinese)(PDF)
• Talaan ng Impormasyon ng Modelo sa Pag-unlad (Tagalog)(PDF)
• Phiếu Thông tin về Mô hình Tiến bộ (Vietnamese)(PDF)

Appropriate Uses of Growth Scores Flyer

• Appropriate Uses of Growth Scores Flyer(PDF)

Growth Model FAQs

Commonly asked questions about the Growth Model

Data Files and Record Layouts

Due to changes in instruction and assessment caused by COVID-19, the growth scores released in 2021 were calculated based on historical data from 2016-17, 2017-18, and 2018-19, and were not intended to be actionable. Growth scores will be calculated and released again in 2024 after three consecutive years of test scores are available (2021-22, 2022-23, 2023-24).

• 2021 Student Growth Scores – Record Layout
• 2021 Student Growth Scores – Data File(XLSX; Revised 24-Sep-2021)
• 2021 Student Growth Scores – Data File(TXT; Revised 24-Sep-2021)

Webinars

• Student Growth Methodology webinar PowerPoint(PDF) – June 14, 2021 Student Growth Methodology webinar PowerPoint that covers the student growth methodology adopted at the May 2021 SBE meeting, and information regarding the student growth data.
• Growth Model Toolkit webinar PowerPoint(PPTX) – September 13, 2021 Growth Model Toolkit webinar that covers the Student Growth Toolkit to support the release of California’s student growth data.
  • Notetaking Guide(DOCX)
  • September 13, 2021 Webinar Recording (Video; 1:00:45)

Additional Resources

Recent State Board Items and Memos

• February 2021 SBE Information Memorandum(DOCX) includes the final technical report from ETS on the student growth model and recommendations for criteria for determining the assignment of the Empirical Best Linear Prediction Model (EBLP) or simple average.
• May 2021 SBE Item(DOCX) includes detailed information on the approved growth model methodology and the aggregated growth scores for student groups at the LEA and school-levels.
• October 2021 SBE Information Memorandum(DOCX) includes a progress report on ongoing work on the Student Growth Model as of October 2021.
• February 2022 SBE Information Memorandum(DOCX) includes the overview of research conducted by the California Department of Education (CDE) on the development of a data report or display to combine English Language Proficiency Assessment for California (ELPAC) levels with academic growth scores.